Dynasty DNA
Dynasty DNA · Glass-box player modeling

A dynasty model that shows its work.

Every number comes with its receipt, and the projection is validated against 24 years of history to beat the baseline.

See the accuracy scorecard ▸
Backtest · 24 seasons, walk-forwardValidated

Projection vs baseline

+4.6%

lower error than the 2-year weighted-average baseline

Folds improved24 / 24
Dynasty DNA Value
Gate not met

This model did not clear its pre-registered gate. Its own reasons are in the scorecard.

Breakout / bust
Validated

Out-of-sample AUC: cleared its floor, scored in the open.

Proof · today

Validated against 24 years, not promised.

We ran the model on 24 held-out seasons and publish the result in full: the wins, and the gates we haven't cleared. What stands below is read straight from the live scorecard, measured out-of-sample. No spin: the numbers are the model's own.

Reading the scorecard…
See the full scorecard · wins and shortfalls ▸
Glass-box

Most tools hand you a number. We hand you the receipt.

Every Dynasty DNA Value breaks down line by line, and the model's risk read is a place on a map: auditable, never a vibe.

Dynasty DNA Valuereceipt
  • Baserecency-weighted recent PPG
  • × Agespot on the position aging curve
  • + Productionseason-over-season percentile slope
  • + Trajectoryphase nudge, ascending or declining
  • + Scarcityvalue above positional replacement
  • + Draft capitalpedigree prior, fading with experience
= raw score (PPG scale) free with an account

Every line is checkable, and they sum to the raw score. No black box. The 0–10,000 Dynasty DNA Value is the next step: that score places the player on the market's own sorted value ladder, so the scale is the market's and the placement is ours.

The risk · Peak ↔ Reliabilitythe read
Boom / busthigh ceiling · low floorCornerstonehigh ceiling · high floorSpeculativelow ceiling · low floorSteady floorlow ceiling · high floorceiling ↑floor →

Floor on the x-axis, ceiling on the y. Every player lands in one quadrant, each axis backed by its own receipt. A read, not an accuracy claim.

See it live on any player's Strand ▸

The Library

Real players. Real values. Free to browse.

Market values, position ranks, multi-year production, and weekly stats on every dynasty-relevant player, open to everyone. The Dynasty DNA Value unlocks with a free account.

Browse the player database
Make it yours

Connect your league, and the model meets your roster.

The same glass-box engine, pointed at the teams you actually own: a Power Index that shows its math, team Blueprints, and a live trade calculator. Connecting a league is free; the Blueprint's full read is part of Pro.

Connect your league
  • The Assay

    Power Index: who's actually best, every input shown.

  • The Genome

    Team Blueprints: your roster's edges, gaps, and next moves.

  • The Splice

    Trade calculator: value any offer against the model, live.

  • Portfolio

    Every team you own, across every league, in one view.

Your dynasty, decoded.

Free shows the number: every player's owned numbers, no card. Pro shows the why: the waterfall, the trajectory, and the projection band. Renews automatically at $7/mo until you cancel. Cancel anytime; access continues to the end of the paid period. Full terms.

See pricing ▸