We publish our own scorecard — including the gates we haven't cleared.

Every model, every gate — exactly as it scored.

Each model carries one of three honest states, set by the live backtest and never by hand — validated (cleared its pre-registered gate), market test pending (can't be tested yet), or in development (a bar it hasn't met). Here is why each sits where it does:

• Dynasty DNA Value earns a real signal — it sorts players top-to-bottom on future production, in order. But we can't yet test it against the market: our own value history only begins in 2026, so there is no market baseline to out-rank. That's untestable for now, not a failure.
• Projection (the published equation) is a calibrated range, graded on whether its error beats a 2-year weighted average by the 3% our gate demands. Its verdict — and that of an experimental age-adjusted variant we publish beside it — is in the ledger, set by the live backtest.
• Breakout / bust are graded on their walk-forward (out-of-sample) AUC against a 0.58 floor — never the flattering in-sample figure. Each signal's verdict is in the ledger; neither is sold as predictive unless its held-out AUC earns it.

Dynasty DNA Value

The Dynasty DNA Value is our own dynasty value on a fixed 0–10,000 scale — built from an additive model and normalized to that range. It is not the market value: the public market value is what the market pays today; the Dynasty DNA Value is what our model says a player is worth. We show the two side by side so you can see where they disagree. It is glass-box: the waterfall on every player's Strand sums to the model's raw score, line by line — no black box. The inputs:

• Base — recency-weighted recent PPG, the production floor a player starts from.
• × Age multiplier — the player's spot on his position's aging curve, peak-aware.
• Production trend — the season-over-season percentile slope.
• Opportunity — snap share versus a neutral baseline (usage, not expected points).
• Trajectory — a phase adjustment for ascending or declining players.
• Scarcity — value above positional replacement level.
• − Risk — an age- and availability-based discount. Sub-replacement scores clamp to a labeled replacement floor, so the receipt always sums to the number shown.

The earned claim above is the proof it works as a ranking: sort by Dynasty DNA Value and real future production falls in order — that is the sense in which it is validated today. Whether it out-ranks the market is a separate, harder test we can't run yet — see the ledger.

Trajectory — phase, breakout / bust

Trajectory reads where a player is on his arc, and never hides how:

• Phase blends the aging-curve prior (the sign of the curve's slope at his age) with the player's own 2-season percentile slope. When they disagree, the player's own data gets the vote — at lower, disclosed confidence.
• Breakout / bust are logistic models fit on labeled history, applied with shown coefficients — each 0–100 score is a sum of named contributions, not an opaque grade. We grade them on their walk-forward AUC, shown honestly in the ledger.
• Regression-to-mean shrinks thin samples toward the positional mean by reliability weight (w = n / (n + K)) — few games trust the prior, a full sample trusts the player.

Projection — the honest band

A projection should be a range — a floor, a ceiling, and the zone most outcomes land in — never a single fabricated decimal. Ours is a published equation with five named stages, and its range is calibrated: the share of real outcomes that land inside it sits within our pre-registered 80%±7 target (the exact figure is in the ledger).

On error, the published equation is graded against that same 2-year weighted average — it must beat it by the 3% our gate requires to claim an accuracy edge. Whether it does today is the ledger's call, and that verdict drives the accuracy badge on every Strand. An experimental age-adjusted variant is graded the same way, separately — published unproven, not hidden.

A failure you can see beats a number you can't.

This page reports gates we haven't cleared, on purpose. A scorecard is only worth something if it can come back negative — and ours does, in public, with the exact evidence beside it. Nothing here is hand-set: the statuses, the metrics, and the criterion-by-criterion verdicts all read from the live backtest. The day a gate clears, the same endpoint that shows you today's shortfall will show you the win — and you'll be able to check that too.

• Every number on screen is live model output, or clearly labeled as developing, in-validation, or untestable.
• Glass-box always — every verdict is followed by its receipts.
• A projection is a range, never a fabricated decimal.
• No “out-ranks the market” claim until the public scorecard earns it.